Omar:
#apple_ipad @dom:
I think that boat has sailed, crossed the ocean, and is now circling Fiji. Practically speaking what it all comes down to is marrying willing and paying customers with eager and enthusiastic developers. With the iPhone, iPod Touch and iPad Apple has a metric ton of willing and paying customers. These are people that have already self-selected themselves that they're willing to pay a premium dollar for a 'premium' experience. Slick, functional and It Just Works.
The genius with Apple was giving those customers a dead-simple mechanism to find, load and play with new apps. The App Store is essentially a safe-zone, and while the quality of a ton of apps is suspect, if you go with the 'popular' you're pretty much guaranteed to get something decent. So Apple has the paying customers... and if you're a developer that's looking to make money, you have nowhere else to go. Are developers getting rich off of the Android Marketplace? What about the Blackberry App Store?
If the Apple App Store is the only store that developers are getting rich off if, then that's the one the best developers will be targeting. You might have functionally equivalent apps on competing platforms - similar to open source alternatives to popular commercial packages - but they'll be inferior in ways that mainstream customers care about.
So now you have great apps on the iphone/ipad platform which draws in even MORE paying customers and boom you have a virtuous cycle. Ideals, principals, fears of the future, vendor lock-in, closed platform, etc etc. All of those get washed away in an orgy of apps and money. For the past 8 years we've been living in a Google web world where openness reigned supreme.
Will open trump closed the same way that happened with the web?
That's the big question. Pundits are obviously claiming that it will, but I don't know if we can be so sure. Look at the iPod and iTunes. Obviously music is different than full fledged applications, but what people care about is the EXPERIENCE. As long as the experience the average person receives on the iPhone is superior to the competition, nothing else matters.
But that's going to be up to the developers. Do developers care more about money and getting users/traction or about jumping through restrictive hoops.
My prediction is that right now Apple wields the power, but it's really about the apps. And once the apps get enough traction the balance of power goes to the developers. For example, I have the Quicken app. It's awesome. Love it. Isn't available on other platforms. As soon as it is... well, one less + to Apple.
I guess a good way to think of it is like gaming consoles. Right now the iPhone OS is the SNES/PS2. It's got the audience, and has the most exclusive developers. But that doesn't mean you can't have somebody like Microsoft make a close copycat, woo developers, and make everyone go multiplatform... oh wait, MS is releasing Phone 7 in the fall. It won't be this year, but I'd put my bet on MS in competing the most with Apple, not Google.
Apr 9, 10